Following up on an earlier post, we will model the voting success of the (most prominent) populist party, AfD, in the recent federal elections. This time, Bayesian modeling techniques will be used, drawing on the excellent textbook my McElreath. Note that this post is rather a notebook of my thinking, doing, and erring. I’ve made no efforts to hide scaffolding. I think it will be confusing to the uniniate and the initiate as well …