Our paper, Sequential Transport for Causal Mediation Analysis, with Agathe Fernandes-Machado, Iryna Voitsitska and Ewen Gallic, is now available on https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15182 We propose sequential transport (ST), a distributional framework for mediation analysis that combines optimal transport (OT) with a mediator directed acyclic graph (DAG). Instead of relying on cross-world counterfactual assumptions, ST constructs unit-level mediator counterfactuals by minimally transporting each mediator, either marginally or conditionally, toward its distribution under an alternative treatment …

Louis Mittel points us to this news article with headline: Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story Bettors are using death threats to try to get … Continue reading → …

Linda is 57 years old, married, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in East Asian studies. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in religious demonstrations. Which is more probable? … Continue reading → …

Last year we saw that individual-level loss may not be great for choosing models for MRP (“individualism doesn’t work”). The typical machine learning looks at individual-level Loss(y_i, yhat_i). But for MRP we care about population-level Loss(E[Y], E[yhat_i]) where E[Y] is … Continue reading → …

17.03.2026 A new release of Bio7 is available.The application Bio7 is a free and open-source integrated development environment for ecological modeling, scientific image analysis and statistical analysis. Beside other programming tools it contains a feature complete development environment for R with an advanced R editor, R developer tools and interfaces …

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The stats19 R package has been updated to version 4.0.0. The main change is a unified column schema that lets you work with 45 years of UK road crash data (1979 to 2024) without running into mismatched column names.
Unified schema
Older data files have…

Continue reading: stats19 v4.0.0: 45 Years of UK Road Crash Data, …