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2026-03-06
Missing forecasts
2026-03-05
This post is by Lizzie. Greetings from sunny Vancouver! I saw a magnolia in bloom today, which feels super early to me. But less early in that cherry and other plum trees have been blooming around the city. We have …
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Making a killing from prediction markets
2026-03-05
Paul Alper points us to this news story from the Washington Post, “Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei’s death. Now they’re not getting paid,” which reports: When he learned Saturday about the killing of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Israeli-American …
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