Crue centennale de la Seine à 42 milliards d’euros ?

2026-03-03
En fin de semaine dernière, L’Argus de l’Assurance titrait sur une estimation de la “crue centennale de la Seine” Je voulais revenir dessus avec un (court) billet parce que j’ai toujours du mal à comprendre ce qu’une telle estimation veut (vraiment) dire. Au risque de me répéter (je le disais dans Catastrophes naturelles, catastrophes évitables ou imprévisibles ?) et c’est largement discuté dans Flood Risk Assessment and Management, le risque d’inondation (comme toutes les catastrophes naturelles) doit être compris comme le résultat d’interactions …

Survey Statistics: sampling-weighted loss

2026-03-03
We’ve mostly focused on a population mean E(Y) as our quantity of interest. We saw how methods extend to estimating a subgroup mean E(Y | V=1), e.g. voters. What about estimating a general conditional mean E(Y | X) ? We talked a … Continue reading → …

“The inner workings of a scam”

2026-03-03
This story from pharmacologist Csaba Szabo is hilarious/horrible. He goes through a long email exchange with a fake-academic-journal scammer, gradually extracting various aspects of their evil business plan. I get these scam messages all the time and either ignore them … Continue reading → …

Why did I create ESR (my thoughts on ESS)

2026-03-03

Ever since I was using a text editor for R I have been using ESS. That makes it 10 years now. And so, I have decided that it is enough.
I started using R during my masters studies for my statistical analysis. I wanted to learn the core of the …

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